I decided to do some research after this past weekends NFL playoff games and seeing both the AFC teams that received byes losing their home-field advantage. From there I started thinking that this seems to happen more often than I would think in the AFC, so I went back as far as the 2000 season and was surprised to see the round where home-field advantage is the most effective is the wild card round. Here are the statistics to support my findings:
Wild Card Home Field Effectiveness: (11/14 appearances for 78.57%)
(3 home-field advantage losers in wild-card round of AFC since 2000)
- 2001 Season: Miami Dolphins losing at home to Baltimore Ravens
- 2004 Season: San Diego Chargers losing at home to the New York Jets
- 2005 Season: Cincinnati Bengals losing at home to the Pittsburgh Steelers
Divisional Round Home Field Effectiveness: (9/14 appearances for 64.29%)
(5 home-field advantage losers in divisional round of AFC since 2000)
- 2000 Season: Tennessee Titans losing at home to Baltimore Ravens
- 2003 Season: Kansas City Chiefs losing at home to Indianapolis Colts
- 2005 Season: Indianapolis Colts losing at home to Pittsburgh Steelers
- 2006 Season: Baltimore Ravens losing at home to Indianapolis Colts
- 2006 Season: San Diego Chargers losing at home to New England Patriots
More scary is the fact since the 2003 season, only 50% of the AFC teams with home field advantage in the divisional playoffs round have won their playoffs games. Obviously, it appears home field advantage in the AFC may be overrated!
Conference Championship Round Home Field Effectiveness: (3/7 appearance for 42.86%)
(4 home-field advantage losers in championship round of AFC since 2000)
- 2000 Season: Oakland Raiders losing at home to Baltimore Ravens
- 2001 Season: Pittsburgh Steelers losing at home to New England Patriots
- 2004 Season: Pittsburgh Steelers losing at home to New England Patriots
- 2005 Season: Denver Broncos losing at home to Pittsburgh Steelers
I guess in the AFC, just making the playoffs is good enough as the top teams seem to either play down to their opponents level and lose or some other phenomenon occurs that causes the home teams to rest on the fact they are playing at home and believing the other team will just not show up and play well. I even looked at the number through 11 season (1996) and found the percentages hold up in the AFC and that 4 of the last 11 winners of the AFC have been wild card teams that did not even win their division!
1 comment:
Intereseting, only the Steelers over the Bengals last year, was a team within the division defeating another. So, maybe there is just an unbalance from division to division within a conference from year-to-year. So 2nd in one division is just better than another division winner.
That and the Patriots are lucky, the Colts, Chiefs choke.
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